Delphi variants

What started out as a Classic Delphi procedure in which the experts were surveyed using a standardized questionnaire has now developed into different variants displaying modifications that differ in regard to a Delphi procedure's context, aim and potential to yield knowledge and insight.

Belonging to these variants are:

  • Policy Delphi: This variant does not involve consensus, but rather concerns itself with mapping out dissent, meaning a wide range of judgments. This type of Delphi is usually commissioned by policy makers who want to be informed about necessary conventions and the current state of affairs and/or knowledge.
  • Argumentative Delphi: This variant does not focus on establishing consensus, but rather on the argumentative (qualitative) reasoning for the experts' standardized judgments.
  • Real-Time Delphi: The experts are surveyed online and without structured rounds, meaning that after entering their own judgments, the aggregated group responses of the experts are fed back in real time.
  • Group Delphi: An interdisciplinary group of experts comprised of up to 40 people participate in a workshop and answer a standardized questionnaire in small rotating groups. The Group Delphi has the only design modification where the experts' anonymity is traded in for the benefit of personal interactions.
  • Quasi Delphi: In this variant, qualitative expert interviews are conducted (sometimes in multiple rounds), and then the results are evaluated by the experts in a standardized manner.
  • Hybrid Delphi: Here, Delphi studies are combined with other empirical research methods (e.g., focus groups, nominal group technique). Hybrid Delphi procedures are sometimes referred to as modified Delphi techniques.
  • Delphi Markets: Delphi Markets focus on improving the experts' ability to forecast. To do this, the Delphi method of argumentation is combined with the information efficiency of the prediction markets. The aims are to share information and to reliably quantify the probability of occurrence for predefined future and risk scenarios.