Delphi technique

The Delphi technique is an iterative and structured group communication process in which complex issues with uncertain or incomplete knowledge are evaluated by experts. What sets the Delphi technique apart is that in each repeated survey round the aggregated group results from the previous round are fed back, giving the experts the opportunity to rethink and even revise their judgments.

Numerous variations of the Delphi technique have emerged in recent years. Nonetheless, they all share five basic characteristics:

• Experts are surveyed while preserving their anonymity.
• A standardized questionnaire is used.
• Univariate analysis is used to statistically describe group responses.
• The results of the previous round are fed back to the participating experts giving them the opportunity to revise their judgments.
• The survey is conducted at least two times.

Delphi techniques can be used to make assenting and diverging expert judgments transparent, identify possible future scenarios, and ensure the integration of current bodies of knowledge. Building off of the results, political decision-makers can put scarce resources and capacities to specific use thus increasing the acceptance and legitimacy of decisions from the view of other stakeholders.